Saturday 15 May 2010

"Cleggmania" succeeded first of all in galvanising the electorate. But by the time they got to the polling booth their attention had switched to defeating the party they were afraid of most. Under our voting system, that meant they reverted back to "Labservative".
In addition the leadership debates brought up the issue of immigration. Whenever Cameron spoke on this, his vote went up.
And so on election day the Tories got the most votes.
A progressive coalition looked mathematically possible. But Labour tribalist MPs made that impossible.
This left 2 options; go it alone, or align with the Tories.
Go it alone was not really an option. Only the Tory party can afford to fight another election this year.
But aligning with the Tories has risks too. For many on the left, including many Lib Dems, there is the symbolism. The MPs we least want to see running the country; Osborne, Hague and Fox now have their hands on the levers of power. It becomes much harder for the Lib Dems to win votes in Labour areas from now on.
Then there is the question of what the government will now do. 2 weeks ago, the Liberal Democrats claimed that they would not support radical cuts in public spending right away, as this would induce a double dip recession. Now they are doing just that. How can this be in the national interest? There may be a good answer to this question, but I have not come across it yet.
On the other hand there is a lot that is positive about this proposed coalition. Good to see Chris Huhne tackling the issue of global warming for example. Good to see the pupil premium being implemented (although it remains to be seen if the investment will be there to make it work). Good to see civil liberties being supported. The question is whether the benefits on policy outweigh the risks from a possible recession?
The electorate gave the Lib Dems a poor hand for their negotiating position in the coalition talks. They have made the best of a bad hand, but there remains a high risk that our unforgiving voting system; whether FPTP or AV, will come down hard on them next time.
Under our voting system, you do not get many choices in politics. Left Liberals should stay in the Lib Dems and make the best of the situation as they can. It is not clear there is any other choice for the time being.

1 comment:

丁SeritaG上心 said...
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